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Will the Market Bloom This Spring?

Well, we had a market meltdown in the fourth quarter of 2018, but lately, we’ve had quite the rebound. Not back to the high levels of last September, but we’re getting pretty close. I think people are still cautiously optimistic that stocks are doing well and they’d like to participate in the returns, and clearly, they have a bias to buy high. As we know, many investors tend to pile into stocks after the market’s gone up, leading them to buy high and sell low. That’s what investors do.

On episode 66 of Bull Bear Radio, I mentioned that nine out of the 10 previous times since 1950 when the market was up more than 10% in Q1, the market finished in double digits for the year. And strong Q1 performance is usually followed by a softer Q2. Below is a breakout of that data.

As the weather warms and we begin to see trees turn green, what can we anticipate from markets? Using history as a guide, we expect to see a softer Q2 in 2019. It doesn’t mean it couldn’t be really good, but just trying to manage expectations for all those investors rushing into stocks. Great start, but we’ll have to wait and see how the year transpires.

For more on this topic, listen to Bull | Bear Radio Episode #66.

Important Information

Past performance does not guarantee future results. The views presented are those of Matt Schreiber and should not be construed as investment advice. Matt Schreiber or clients of WBI may own stock/sectors discussed in this article. All economic and performance information is historical and not indicative of future results. This is not an offer to buy or sell any security.No security or strategy, including those referred to directly or indirectly in this document, is suitable for all accounts or profitable all of the time and there is always the possibility of loss. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information provided here serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from WBI or from any other investment professional. To the extent that you have any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed to your individual situation, please consult with WBI or the professional advisor of your choosing. This information is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Information pertaining to WBI’s advisory operations, services, and fees is set forth in WBI’s disclosure statement in Part 2A of Form ADV, a copy of which is available upon request.

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Unless otherwise indicated all performance is sourced from Bloomberg.


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